It’s not an understatement when I say that predicting this year’s Tony Awards is the hardest thing I’ve ever done in my life. After the Year of Hamilton (and its inevitable sweep of awards), this year has produced an incredible number of new musicals and equally incredible talent backing them all. I’m confident in saying that I have no confidence in any of my predictions, because really, anything could happen this year.
Come From Away
Dear Evan Hansen
Natasha, Pierre & The Great Comet of 1812
Will win: Dear Evan Hansen
Upset: Natasha, Pierre & The Great Comet of 1812 or Come From Away
Remember when Groundhog Day opened in London and it generated so much buzz about being the next big thing? Me either. It’s a perfectly fine show, and might win any other year, but the other three are far more likely. Now that Come From Away won the Drama Desk Award for Best Musical, it might even seem like more of a frontrunner – but then again, its competition for that award was slim to none (out of the five nominees, three of them were Off-Broadway, hence ineligible for Tony nominations, and the other one was Anastasia, which failed to garner a Tony nom. None of its actual competition in the Tony race).
When I left the Imperial after seeing Great Comet, I thought for sure it had Best Musical locked up. It is the definition of a spectacle, and it’s hosting a theatre experience that no other show on Broadway is doing right now. Its lighting, staging, interactive experience, top-tier performances and the most interesting score make it an ideal frontrunner – or at least, so I thought. I would love for Great Comet to win any category, even if I didn’t pick it to win, because that means it’s a step forward for innovative, diverse theatre.
Best Revival of a Musical
Will win: Hello, Dolly!
I recently listened to the new Hello, Dolly! cast album and realized that when people say they don’t like musicals, this is the kind of musical they don’t like. Belting divas, a big chorus, feather headpieces, and classic numbers. A.K.A. heaven.
Leading Actor in a Musical
Christian Borle, Falsettos
Josh Groban, Natasha, Pierre & The Great Comet of 1812
Andy Karl, Groundhog Day
David Hyde Pierce, Hello, Dolly!
Ben Platt, Dear Evan Hansen
Will win: Ben Platt
Upset: If anybody but Ben Platt wins, I will burn this place to the ground.
Christian Borle should be applauded for two leading roles in a single season (he’s currently playing the candy man himself in Charlie and the Chocolate Factory, a show that garnered 0 nominations), and he’s always a Tony favourite, but this is more a thank-you for doing Falsettos, and he won’t clinch his third trophy this year, although it would be well-deserved.
I love Josh Groban!! That’s not an exaggeration. I’ve been a fan of his music for years, and he’s perfect in Great Comet. He might be the nicest guy on Broadway right now (at least for the next month-or-so until his last performance on July 2), and this nomination is saying thank you for this great performance – please come back soon.
If it weren’t for Ben Platt, Andy Karl would be the favourite. He’s worked hard on Broadway for years, he earned the Olivier for the role of Phil Connors earlier this year, he just won the Drama Desk for the part, and he literally tore his ACL on stage and continued to perform. He’s due to become Broadway’s next Susan Lucci. You’ll get ’em one year, Andy.
David Hyde Pierce already stole Raúl Esparza’s Tony in 2007 (somebody PLEASE explain to me how his Bobby was not Tony-winning. I still don’t understand), and although I haven’t seen the show in person, how could he not be upstaged by Bette?
Leading Actress in a Musical
Denée Benton, Natasha, Pierre & The Great Comet of 1812
Christine Ebersole, War Paint
Patti LuPone, War Paint
Bette Midler, Hello, Dolly!
Eva Noblezada, Miss Saigon
Will win: Bette Midler
Upset: Denée Benton
I would love to see my personal Jesus Patti LuPone take home her third, but it’s basically a sure thing that Bette’s taking home the trophy this year. Even if she MIGHT NOT PERFORM.
Even if it wasn’t the Year of Bette, Patti and her War Paint counterpart Christine Ebersole would likely split the votes and it wouldn’t go to either of them.
The youngest Tony nominee this year Eva Noblezada (she is 19!!!!) is absolutely killing it in the titular role of Miss Saigon – her Broadway debut. Denée Benton is also killing it playing opposite two male powerhouses – Josh Groban and Lucas Steele in Great Comet. For supposedly playing a naïve ingenue, Denée’s performance is powerful as hell.
Featured Actor in a Musical
Gavin Creel, Hello, Dolly!
Mike Faist, Dear Evan Hansen
Andrew Rannells, Falsettos
Lucas Steele, Natasha, Pierre & The Great Comet of 1812
Brandon Uranowitz, Falsettos
Will win: Gavin Creel or Andrew Rannells
Upset: Lucas Steele
I’m the most unsure about this category, so I’ll let the two formerly-nominated Elder Prices (with their third and second nominations, respectively) battle it out. I genuinely want this whole category to win a five-way Tony. I’m giving Andrew Rannells the edge because I think the Tony voters want to give Falsettos SOMETHING.
Featured Actress in a Musical
Kate Baldwin, Hello, Dolly!
Stephanie J. Block, Falsettos
Rachel Bay Jones, Dear Evan Hansen
Jen Colella, Come From Away
Mary Beth Peil, Anastasia
Will win: Rachel Bay Jones
Upset: Jenn Colella
Jenn Colella’s been making the press rounds with the Come From Away cast and been performing “Me and the Sky” on every talk show, which might garner up some votes. But is her performance big enough to triumph RBJ’s heartbreaking, phenomenal, truly supportive role?
The creative categories are even harder to choose, and the play categories are even harder still (because I haven’t seen any of them and I don’t pay as much attention to plays as I do musicals). But let’s get real – the real winner on Tony night is me.