I love award shows, and sometimes, I can call them from a mile away. Especially with the Oscars – there are many other smaller award shows leading up to that, and I make a spreadsheet to predict the winners (I’m 75% accurate every year, including technical categories). The Tonys are harder to predict. There are a bunch of smaller award shows leading up to it, but many of them consider Off-Broadway productions too (so shows that transferred from Off-Broadway may have won previously), or they’re fan-chosen, so they don’t matter. But there are usually frontrunners that you can see coming.
This year’s leading actor and actress in a musical are pretty much a sure thing, although surprises can always happen: Ben Platt & Bette Midler will be taking home the top trophies. The real race lies within the featured actors and actresses in a musical this year. They are so divided across fan awards, the NYT critics, and Show-Score experts and voters that there isn’t really a way to call them yet. And they all gave phenomenal performances. So let’s celebrate all the support this year – because as we all know, there are no small parts, only small actors. And small dressing rooms.
Best Featured Actress in a Musical
NYT says: Brantley: Will/Should Win: Mary Beth Peil / Green: Will Win: Jenn Colella, Should Win: Rachel Bay Jones
Show-Score users say: Rachel Bay Jones
Show-Score expert says: Rachel Bay Jones
Kate Baldwin, Hello, Dolly!
Song that earned the nomination: “Ribbons Down My Back”
I had the incredible pleasure of seeing Kate Baldwin play Anna Leonowens last year in the Chicago Lyric Opera’s production of The King and I. She was regal and elegant and I imagine she has similar qualities in Hello, Dolly!
Dolly secured acting noms in all four categories – were they nominated because they deserved it, or are they just on the same Bette hype train?
Stephanie J. Block, Falsettos
Song that earned the nomination: “I’m Breaking Down”, and also check out her “and still the bastard divorced me!” in “This Had Better Come To A Stop” on the cast recording
Musical theatre nerds went apeshit for Falsettos. I hadn’t heard it until this cast album came out, and I am thoroughly obsessed. This show closed in January, yet each of its four leads each earned a nomination, plus the show got a Best Revival nod, even when there are two more revivals still running that weren’t nominated. Its cast recording probably played a huge role in getting nominations, but I’m not sure that it has that much staying power that it can win anything against currently running shows.
Stephanie J is awesome. She loves all her fellow nominees (and took them out for dinner!) and her time for a Tony will come.
Jenn Colella, Come From Away
Song that earned the nomination: “Me and The Sky”
I have mixed feelings about Come From Away – mostly because I feel there’s no conflict, therefore no story. I was skeptical to listen to the cast album because I heard everyone talking about it and how heartwarming it is, and since I know that Canadians are an equal mix of polite and the rudest people I’ve ever met, I took it with a grain of salt. It’s charming, yes, definitely, but most of it sounds like Great Big Sea, which I’ve heard enough of in my life, thanks very much. But Jenn Colella’s solo is something I can listen to over and over again.
She’s been in the biz for a while, but I feel like she’s finally getting the attention she deserves for this role. In an ensemble cast, she’s the only actor nominated, which might make her stand out from the others. She’s in the running.
Rachel Bay Jones, Dear Evan Hansen
Song that earned the nomination: “So Big/So Small”
I’m not sure the general public has the same strong reaction to this song like I do, but even just thinking about it starts to make me cry. When Heidi Hansen, Evan’s mom and the character RBJ plays, sings about Evan’s dad moving out of the house and the moving truck in the driveway, I can see the exact same situation when it happened in my life. This is an amazingly emotional musical, and I cry enough as it is, but this song is, to quote Michael Scott, like somebody dropped my heart into a bucket of boiling tears.
In my opinion, RBJ deserves this win on her first nomination.
Mary Beth Peil, Anastasia
Song that earned the nomination: Probably more her general legendary-ness
I have no opinion on this nomination, mostly because the cast recording hasn’t been released yet. Some predictions are calling Mary Beth’s nomination more for her body of work than for this performance, since Anastasia only had two nominations – this one, and one for costume design.
Best Featured Actor in a Musical
NYT says: Brantley: Will Win: Gavin Creel, Should Win: Lucas Steele/Green: Will Win: Gavin Creel, Should Win: Lucas Steele
Show-Score users say: Andrew Rannells
Show-Score expert says: Gavin Creel
Gavin Creel, Hello, Dolly!
Song that earned the nomination: “Put On Your Sunday Clothes”
I haven’t seen Hello, Dolly! (not even the movie, tbh), so I can’t cast judgment here – but Gavin Creel is now a three-time Tony nominee, and I have a feeling it’s time. He wasn’t nominated last year for She Loves Me (which is a goddamn crime if you ask me), and this is probably making up for it. He’s been in the biz for almost twenty years, and people are ready to see him win.
Mike Faist, Dear Evan Hansen
Song that earned the nomination: “Disappear”
When I walked out of Dear Evan Hansen in February, I told my fiancé that Ben Platt and Mike Faist were going to be Tony nominees. Mike Faist has probably the smallest role in the show, but I could feel it. His acting, more than his songs, stuck with me after the show. It’s a very small role, and he won’t take home a trophy, but the nomination should be considered his win.
Andrew Rannells, Falsettos
Song that earned the nomination: “You Gotta Die Sometime”, his general Rannells-ness
Rannells had a recurring role on Girls, he was Hedwig, forever the voice and face of Elder Price, and we haven’t given him a Tony yet. It could happen for playing Whizzer, the boytoy of Falsettos. But I have the same concern with him as I do SJB – the show is closed, which means he has to be that good to stay in the minds of Tony voters for the last five months.
Lucas Steele, Natasha, Pierre & The Great Comet of 1812
Song that earned the nomination: The last 15 seconds of “Pierre & Anatole”
This boy, lemme tell you. Lucas Steele is enchanting in Comet. He has been playing this role since it started – he is the first and only Anatole. Throughout the whole performance he’s got swagger, but it’s his last moments on stage that really seal the deal for you.
I remember he still came out to sign and take photos with everyone for stage door, but he was just mouthing words and nodding instead of talking. This dude needs as much vocal rest as he can get.
Both of the NYT critics say he “should” take it home – so why not? I would love to see him with the trophy.
Brandon Uranowitz, Falsettos
Song that earned the nomination: “Everyone Hates His Parents”, he also gets the last words in the show
BranUran, my man. Rounding out the Falsettos noms is Mendel, the psychiatrist that falls in love with his patient’s wife, and then marries her. But he’s not a scoundrel at all! He’s loveable, trustworthy, and comedic. But I’m not sure it’s enough for him to take it. He’s sort of the comic relief in the show, and the punchline of the joke just isn’t going to take it home this year.
So who am I picking to take home the Tony gold? Stay tuned for my pre-Tony predictions!