I Hope I Get It: 2016 Tony Predictions

hamilton_miranda_lacamoire_grammys-620x412
Alex Lacamoire, Lin-Manuel Miranda, and the cast of Hamilton accepts their Grammy award for the cast album. 

There are only three Sundays left until the biggest Sunday of the year! That’s right, Tony Award season is upon us and in only a few short days, Broadway Christmas will be here and the Year of Hamilton will finally end (or at least, it will no longer be eligible for theatre awards).

In 2001, The Producers won 12 Tonys, the most any show has ever won to this day. Although Hamilton has 16 nominations, five of those are divided within two categories. If it wins one award in every category it’s nominated in (which is every single musical category except for Best Revival), it’ll win 13 and be the new record holder. But will it happen? Will Hamilton ride the hype train all the way to Tony history?

Having seen none of these shows myself, but listening to many a cast recording and following theatre news outlets (and watching Show-Score‘s Facebook livestream today with Tony winners Cady Huffman and Daisy Eagan and Theater People podcast host Patrick Hinds), here are my predictions for who will be partying the hardest at the Tony afterparty.

Best Musical
Will Win: Hamilton
Upset: If anything but Hamilton wins, it will be the greatest upset of all time.

Best Revival of a Musical
Will Win: 
The Color Purple, based on the number of nominations it received compared to the original production
Upset: She Loves Me, although Deaf West’s closed ASL production of Spring Awakening has a cult following

Best Book of a Musical
Will Win: Lin-Manuel Miranda for Hamilton
Upset: Steve Martin for Bright Star. Props to Julian Fellowes, writer for Downton Abbey, for the book of the opposite, School of Rock

Best Original Score
Will Win: Lin-Manuel Miranda for Hamilton
Upset: Sara Bareilles for Waitress, although IMO, every song sounds like a Sara Bareilles single

Best Performance by an Actor in a Leading Role Musical
Will Win: Leslie Odom Jr. for Hamilton
Wait, what? I’m not picking Lin? Nope, I’m not. He’s a writer and composer, and he will win the writing awards, but he only played Hamilton because it was easier than teaching someone else the part and because it was his baby, not because he was the best person for the job.
Upset: Lin-Manuel Miranda for Hamilton, Alex Brightman for School of Rock

Best Performance by an Actress in a Leading Role in a Musical
Will Win: Cynthia Erivo for The Color Purple (have you SEEN this video of her on Colbert?)
Upset: Laura Benanti for She Loves Me (because how does she only have ONE Tony?)
As much as I adore Phillipa Soo in Hamilton, I don’t think she’ll take this category, which will leave the show with only 12 lowly awards.

Best Performance by an Actor in a Featured Role in a Musical
Will Win: Daveed Diggs for Hamilton (because he spits the fastest bars on Broadway)
Upset: Christopher Jackson for Hamilton (“One Last Time” gets me every time and I sincerely hope that he takes it home for his George Washington)

Best Performance by an Actress in a Featured Role in a Musical
Will Win: Renée Elise Goldsberry for Hamilton (same reason as above, plus she’s paid her dues on Broadway and it’s her time)
Upset: Jennifer Simard for Disaster! A Musical (thanks to the #PutSimardOn movement), or Danielle Brooks for The Color Purple (OITNB hype train)

Every Creative Arts Tony
Will Win: Hamilton
Upset: Anything but Hamilton

So basically, vote Hamilton in your pools and you should be fine. If you head to Show Score, you can officially select your picks in every category! June 12 can’t get here fast enough!

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